Wasabi - Tested! It's 10 Tech Trends vs Google Metrics

Any dipstick can pontificate all sorts of feltercarb when it comes to trends, so we decided to use a metric to test our predictions to see if we hold our water when it comes to technology.  I mean – really, what value would we offer if we don’t test our metal once in a while.  Besides, we are new to this and so we want to see if our perspective is correct. Especially when we lambasted Gartner's nose bleed predictions... 

So how are we going to do this?  How does one check whether our predictions are correct before they happen?  We figured that out.

Google Trends

Google Trends analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. They then show you a graph with the results. The result is a Search Volume Index graph with a News reference volume graph. This graph shows you the number of times your topic appeared in Google News stories. When Google Trends detects a spike in the volume of news stories for a particular search term, it labels the graph and displays the headline of an automatically selected Google News story written near the time of that spike. Currently, only English-language headlines are displayed, but we hope to support non-English headlines in the future.

With this global sampling we can pretty much see what items are ascending and what are descending.  It’s not that hard to see that action is predicated by words, so we feel that if talk is rising, research is abounding, action will follow. 

With that, we can see if our predictions follow what the world is looking is interested in. In our graphs we just show the trending, not the headlines (boring).  We will measure our predictions with the graph and give ourselves a score of 1-4, like the insufferable GPA (something we all recognize).  So without further adieu:  

The Report Card:

1. Voice to Text or Action and Vice Versa

Look for debut technologies integrating the voice to text/action and vice versa.  From cars, phones, games, to computer interfaces. The corporate flavor of this is Integrated Voice Response, IVR.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a low in 2007 and returning to a high experienced in 2004, so I think we are good, .6 to a 1.3, but it’s not a homerun.

Grade:  3.5

2. Soooo…. Bye, Bye Mr Specialized Hardware Guy…

Software is eating specialty hardware, i.e., Hard-line phones, Calculators, Camera, MP3 players, Gaming Consoles, PC Servers, Guitar Tuners, GPS devices, Data Centers, and perhaps money? Need I say more?

Review:  Picking on of the stronger and more recent technologies, the MP3 player, right?  It wouldn't be fair if we picked the calculator, haha!  The trend is definitely descending from a high in 2005 and considering the short life, from a 3.0 to a .45 is a solid ping.

Grade:  4.0

3. The Rise of Business Process Management

To increase efficiency and meet regulatory compliance, companies need better methods of gathering and reporting data. Most companies struggle with multiple back-office systems and siloed information.

Review:  The trend is definitely descending from a high in 2004 and a 2.43 to a .5 is well, putting it subtly, a blow it… sorry guys....

Grade:  2.0

4. Goodbye Email, Hello Message Center

The abandonment of email for anything sensitive already has begun, and the shift to total reliance on message centers -- dedicated web portals designed for secure communication between a company and its customers -- looks to be here to stay.

Review:  The trend is ascending from a low in 2010, .6 to 1.4 and almost reaching 7 year high, but the last three months it tanked again, this may be a data error, because nothing on the trends graphs drops that dramatically when trending up, nevertheless, we must consider it, so… we take a half a point hit.

Grade:  3.5

5. The 'Tabletization' of Corporations and the User Experience

If you are a God fearing man, the idea of tablets changing the way we operate is an old one.  Tablet adoption is still a young channel, but it is rife with potential. As with initial mobile forays, it may take companies some period of trial and error to determine how to build the best companying experience for the tablet environment. But most experts agree that the potential for a great tablet companying user experience, especially with the rich interface tablets offer, is nearly unlimited.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a low flat line from 2008 and considering the short life, from a .95 to a 3.25, a 2.3 point launch is a winner.

Grade:  4.0

6. Security is now truly A Moving Target

Mobile devices are becoming nearly ubiquitous. Many industry experts and talking heads already have proclaimed the "death of the PC" as consumers increasingly spend their time on their Smartphone and tablets, including for their companying needs. But as more people conduct their companying on mobile devices, these devices also will become the growing focus of hackers and fraudsters, who are always on the hunt for ripe targets.  In short, want to survive, start thinking that the Smartphone is more a mini PC, rather than a phone, then you’ll understand the risk.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a low flat line from 2007 and considering the short life, from a .95 to a 2.5 is a good indication, a nearly 2 pt jump.

Grade:  4.0

7. Integrating the Channel

If a customer starts a loan application online and doesn't have time to complete it, the same customer often will be asked to start the process all over again in the branch, due to a lack of channel integration. Companies will need to better manage the seamless integration of online, offline and mobile channels in 2012 and beyond.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from an almost nonexistent from 2007 to a 1.75; however it seems to have plateau, so we would conjecture, if something is going to happen, it may not be 2012, we of course are ignoring the blip, yet once again, not a grand slam.

Grade:  3.0

8. Pushing Self-Service Products to Generate Revenue

Companies will put the focus on self-service to grow the bottom line by encouraging customers to embrace cost-saving practices, such e-statements and online bill pay, if they haven't already, to offer consumers rewards for embracing self-service channels.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a low flat line from 2007 and considering the short life, from a .95 to a 1.6 is a good indication, not a grand slam though.

Grade:  3.5

9. You have to Move Like Jagger… Reaching the Next Level of Mobile Evolution

Mobile companying and payments saw major growth in 2011 -- from tech companies and financial institutions launching mobile wallets to consumers utilizing a mobile application to buy a cup of coffee. But 2012 will be the year in which mobile finance gains strategic direction, and companies will introduce next-generation mobile initiatives to drive balance sheet impacts.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a low 2004 and considering the short life; from a .75 to a 1.85 is a good indication, not to mention the recent surge from mid year 2010, a solid point jump.

Grade:  4.0

10. Convergence of Mobile and Online Technologies

Mobile companying started as a novelty, something only techies and first adopters felt comfortable using. The convergence of mobile and online technologies looks to be a prime opportunity to do so in 2012.

Review:  The trend is definitely ascending from a zero in 2008 and considering the short life, from to a 4.0 is a good indication, Wow!! Ya think? 

Grade:  4.0+

Subject	Grade
1. Voice to Text or Action and Vice Versa	3.5
2. Soooo…. Bye, Bye Mr Specialized Hardware Guy…	4.0
3. The Rise of Business Process Management	2.0
4. Goodbye Email, Hello Message Center	3.5
5. The 'Tabletization' of Corporations and the User Experience	4.0
6. Security is now truly A Moving Target	4.0
7. Integrating the Channel	3.0
8. Pushing Self-Service Products to Generate Revenue	3.5
9. You have to Move Like Jagger… Reaching the Next Level of Mobile Evolution	4.0
10. Convergence of Mobile and Online Technologies	4.0

GPA: 3.55 B+; Not exactly one of Nostradamus quatrains, but if Google search terms are true indications of  what people are interested in, we definitely know what we are talking about…

So “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;” 

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About Rick Ricker 

An IT professional with over 20 years experience in Information Security, wireless broadband, network and Infrastructure design, development, and support.

For more information, contact Rick at (800) 333-8394 x 689